In its Global View - Outlook 2009 Bank Sarasin has estimated that the "deepest recession since World War 2" should reach its low in Q2 2009 and that global growth will recover by the end of the year.

The investment bank's topi picks for 2009 include Barry Callebaut, Roche, Schindler, Allianz, Hennes & Mauritz, IBM, and Total.

In terms equities, Sarasin is cautiously optimistic, believing the markets will start to pick up later on in 2009. It cautioned that the downside risks were still dominant because the global recession would inevitably lead to steep falls in corporate profits, and estimated the equity markets currently only have a fair rather than a cheap valuation.

Philipp Baertschi, equity strategist at Bank Sarasin, said: "We are cautiously optimistic about equity markets. In the first few months of 2009, the downside risks will still dominate due to the negative news flow from the sector. The economic outlook should brighten over the course of the year however, encouraging investors to have a greater appetite for risk. We remain cautious towards alternative investments, as demand for both commodities and real estate will not recover as quickly."

However, it was more positive towards corporate bonds, claiming the default rate was overestimated in the market. Amrit Poser, head of research and chief economist at Bank Sarasin, said: "Central banks will use all the tools at their disposal to keep interest rates low in order to contain the threat of deflation. This creates unique opportunities in corporate bonds, whose valuations now stand at all-time lows measured by credit spreads."